AFC Predictions 2009

There are lots of questions going into the 2009 NFL season: Can the Steelers repeat as Super Bowl Champs? Has Tom Brady recovered enough to lead the Patriots back to the playoffs? Can Matthew Stafford lead the Lions to even a single win? How will Brett Favre and Michael Vick do on their new teams, the Vikings and Eagles? These and many other questions will factor in to how I will predict the final season standings for all 8 divisions, as well as the playoff match-ups and winners. Below are my AFC predictions. Click here for NFC predictions.

East

1. New England Patriots – Tom Brady is showing all the signs that he is back to his 2007 form, which should benefit Randy Moss and Wes Welker immensely. As long as the shoulder injury he sustained against the Redskins in the 3rd preseason game isn’t serious he will have a great chance of leading the Pats to another undefeated regular season. They have two tough tests early in the season when Baltimore comes knocking week 4 and Tennessee travels to Foxboro week 6. How they fair in those two games will give us a better idea of how far they can go.

2. Miami Dolphins – Miami got lucky last year in a few games where they surprised teams with the wildcat. Too bad for them that everyone has had the entire off-season to plan for it now and will be able to stop it with much more regularity. Chad Pennington is still a good quarterback that, despite all of the flaws people harp on about him, knows how to win games and Ronnie Brown is an excellent running back. The Dolphins will fall back to earth a bit this year, but should still be able to finish above .500.

3. Buffalo Bills – The addition of Terrell Owens will have a drastic impact on this team. He has a history of playing well the first year he gets to a team. Not only will the Bills benefit from the yards and touchdowns he will bring to the team, Lee Evans should have a better year too, not having to face off against the opposing team’s number 1 cornerback. If Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson do their part in keeping teams honest by pounding the rock well, Trent Edwards should have time to find the open Owens or Evans and the Bills may actually jump the Dolphins to number 2 in the division.

4. NY Jets – With Brett Favre as their quarterback last year, the Jets started off 8-3 and looked like they might make a run at the Super Bowl. Those dreams died about the same time as Favre’s arm and they finished the season 1-4. This year, the Jets won’t have the benefit of Favre’s fast start. They will take a lot of lumps this year with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez failing to imitate Matt Ryan’s, or even Joe Flacco’s success from last year. The Jets will be lucky to win 6 games this year.

North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – Until someone proves they can knock off the defending Super Bowl champs, I can’t not put them winning their own division. Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, and Santonio Holmes will never have the stats to compete with the elite fantasy players at their positions, but they know how to get the job done and they know how to work as a team. It doesn’t hurt that they play in a division with putrid Cleveland and Cincinnati either.

2. Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore’s defense is what people tend to focus on when they talk about the Ravens. While it is a very good defense (3rd in the AFC last year in points allowed) it is the offense that helped the Ravens finish so well last year (4th in points scored in the AFC last year). The Ravens’ rushing attack may be even better this year than it was last year, but I don’t see how Joe Flacco avoids a sophomore slump. Also, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed have to be running on fumes by now, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dip in their defensive potency this year, either.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – With Carson Palmer back the Bengals should be able to double the number of wins they had last year. Unfortunately, that will only get them to 8 wins, so unless they have another tie this year they won’t have a winning record. Chad Ochocinco will have his typical good year, and will Tweet about non-stop, but there is no way Chris Henry fills the role vacated by T.J. Houshmandzadeh when he went to Seattle.

4. Cleveland Browns – This will not be the year for young quarterbacks as Brady Quinn will struggle, just like Matthew Stafford in Detroit, Mark Sanchez in New York, and Joe Flacco in Baltimore. The bad news for Quinn is that his supporting cast is just barely better than Stafford’s so the two of them will be battling for worst team in the league.

South

1. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning didn’t like losing the top-dog billing in the division last year so he will do everything he can to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Marvin Harrison leaving will actually be a good thing for the Colts, because they will be able to focus on making Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez the guys to throw to. Losing Tony Dungy on the sidelines will definitely hurt the Colts, but I think Dungy had his succession plan in place and the transition should be smoother than it ought to be.

2. Tennessee Titans – Losing Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins was a big blow to the Titans defense. Teams will now be able to double up Kyle Vanden Bosch more which will make it a lot easy to run against the Titans. Not only that but Kerry Collins is going to turn 37 this year, and you have to wonder if he will be able to make it through another full season. If not, how confidant are the Titans that Vince Young will be able to take over and lead this team to some late season wins? I’d say not very.

3. Houston Texans – This could finally be the Texans’ year to finish a season with a winning record. They have a good quarterback in Matt Schaub, a Top-5 wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a Top-10 running back in Steve Slaton. This team seemed to gel last year, finishing the season 5-1, and should be able to build on that this year. Unfortunately for them they play in a division with the Colts and Titans so 9 or 10 wins is about as good as they can hope to do, which will still only get them 3rd in the division.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – I hear a lot of people saying that Maurice Jones-Drew will benefit from not having to split carries with Fred Taylor this year, but I don’t buy it. MoJo is a much better back when he can keep his legs fresh and do what he does best, which is flair out and catch passes out of the backfield. There were three games last year where he led the Jaguars in receiving, and I just don’t see him having the energy to do that again this year if he has to carry the ball 20-25 times a game. David Garrard better hope St. Louis retread Torry Holt isn’t washed up and that Troy Williamson does better here than he did in Minnesota, because he isn’t going to be able to look towards MoJo as an outlet nearly as much as he did last year.

West

1. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers offense last year scored more points than any other team in the AFC, and were second only to New Orleans in the entire NFL. All of the key components to that offense, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Philip Rivers, and Antonio Gates are all back and unless one of them gets hurt they should have no problem scoring a lot of points again this year. With the return of Shawne Merriman on defense the Chargers won’t give up nearly as many points as they did last year, which will help them wrap up this division by Thanksgiving.

2. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders defense was good at times last year, and one of their bigger problems was they were always on the field because the Raiders’ offense was so poor. This year, with Jeff Garcia breathing down his neck, JaMarcus Russell will have no choice but to get better, and his receiving core of Darrius Heyward-Bay and Jonnie Lee Higgins should provide ample deep threats to keep teams from stacking the box against Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. Last year’s offensive shortcomings shouldn’t hurt the Raiders nearly as much this year, and finishing the season with 7 or 8 wins shouldn’t be out of the question.

3. Denver Broncos – Replacing Jay Cutler with Kyle Orton at quarterback is a huge downgrade for this team. Add in the fact that Brandon Marshall wants out and is currently suspended, and things are shaping up to be a very long season for new Head Coach Josh McDaniels. The only chance the Broncos have of staying out of the AFC West cellar is if they can manage, for the umpteenth year in a row, to plug in a new running back and have him do well.

4. Kansas City Chiefs – Larry Johnson is washed up. The Chiefs wide receivers are a collection of has-beens and no names, except for Dwayne Bowe. But he currently doesn’t have anyone good to throw him the ball, since Matt Cassell just got hurt in a preseason game against the Seahawks. Even if Cassell was still healthy he isn’t nearly as good of a quarterback as his numbers last year with the Patriots make him out to be. If Cassell doesn’t return or has to play injured the whole year the Chiefs will be lucky to win half as many games this year as they did last year. Even if the injury turns out to be a minor one, the Chiefs won’t win more than 3 games this year.