NFL Postseason Predictions 2009

I’ve already predicted how the regular season for the NFC (link here) and AFC (link here) will unfold. Now it’s time for the postseason predictions; both the playoff predictions and the awards predictions.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

NFC

Round 1

(1) Philadelphia Eagles and (2) Carolina Panthers-bye

(6) New Orleans Saints – 34 @ (3) Minnesota Vikings – 21. Drew Brees getting to play in a dome for the first round of the playoffs = no home field advantage for the Vikings. Brett Favre continues his late season nose-dive and throws too many costly picks.

(5) Dallas Cowboys – 21 @ (4) Seattle Seahawks -20. Tomy Romo goes into one of the toughest places to play and lets it affect him for the first three quarters, but finally overcomes the pressure and leads Dallas to two fourth quarter touchdown drives. The cycle won’t be truly complete because Wade Phillips won’t let Romo be the holder for the clenching extra point try, but he’ll take the victory none-the-less.

Round 2

(6) New Orleans Saints – 27 @ (1) Philadelphia Eagles – 23. Drew Brees continues to put up sick playoff numbers and Reggie Bush helps the team the by giving them great field position and six points with his kickoff and punt returns. Philly fans boo Donovan McNabb for his continued ability to not win in the playoffs (completely forgetting that even making it to the playoffs is a feat in and of itself).

(2) Carolina Panthers – 24, (5) Dallas Cowboys – 21, in overtime. The NFL’s stupid overtime rules eliminate the Cowboys without them even getting a chance to score, as Carolina wins the coin toss and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart run the Panthers the 45 yards they need to get into field goal position.

NFC Championship Game

(6) New Orleans Saints – 24 @ (2) Carolina Panthers – 10. The Panthers have no answer for Drew Brees, and he gets the Saints off to a huge early lead, forcing the Panthers to all but abandon their rushing game. The Saints are able to double cover Steve Smith, effectively eliminating any offense Carolina can hope to put together.

AFC

Round 1

(1) New England Patriots and (2) San Diego Chargers- bye

(6) Houston Texans – 20 @ (3) Pittsburgh Steelers- 17. The Texans won’t be satisfied enough to just make the playoffs, they will go into the defending champion Steelers’ house and shock the world.

(4) Indianapolis Colts – 23, (5) Tennessee Titans – 10. The Colts will take the rubber match of the season series by not letting the Titans offense keep up with Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts offense.

Round 2

(1) New England Patriots – 31, (6) Houston Texans- 17. The Texans magical season will end in Foxboro when they can’t find an answer for Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker.

(2) San Diego Chargers – 34, (4) Indianapolis Colts – 28. In a battle of high powered offenses, the Shawne Merriman led Chargers D will find a way to stop Peyton Manning just enough to send the Charger to the AFC title game.

AFC Championship Game

(2) San Diego Chargers – 13, (1) New England Patriots – 9. Cold weather and snow will neutralize both team’s passing games. The Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles are much better running backs than whoever New England will march out there for that particular game.

 

Super Bowl

San Diego Chargers – 41, New Orleans Saints – 38. The two highest scoring offenses in the NFL will make Super Bowl XLIV one of the most entertaining ever. This game will basically come down to whichever team gets the ball last, so I give the edge to the team that has the better defense: San Diego.

 

Individual Awards

NFL MVP-Drew Brees-Saints. Voters will be stupid not to give the MVP award to Brees when he breaks the single season record for passing yards this year.

Runners-up: Tom Brady-Patriots, Adrian Peterson-Vikings.

Offensive Player of the Year-Drew Brees-Saints. See above.

Runners-up: Adrian Peterson-Vikings, Larry Fitzgerald-Cardinals.

Defensive Player of the Year-Shawne Merriman-Chargers. He will play “lights out” this year to prove last year was an injury fluke.

Runners-up: Albert Haynesworth-Redskins, Mario Williams-Texans.

Coach of the Year-Gary Kubiak-Texans. How do you not give the award to the coach that led his team to the playoffs for the first time in their history?

Runners-up: Sean Payton-Saints, Mike McCarthy-Packers.

AFC Predictions 2009

There are lots of questions going into the 2009 NFL season: Can the Steelers repeat as Super Bowl Champs? Has Tom Brady recovered enough to lead the Patriots back to the playoffs? Can Matthew Stafford lead the Lions to even a single win? How will Brett Favre and Michael Vick do on their new teams, the Vikings and Eagles? These and many other questions will factor in to how I will predict the final season standings for all 8 divisions, as well as the playoff match-ups and winners. Below are my AFC predictions. Click here for NFC predictions.

East

1. New England Patriots – Tom Brady is showing all the signs that he is back to his 2007 form, which should benefit Randy Moss and Wes Welker immensely. As long as the shoulder injury he sustained against the Redskins in the 3rd preseason game isn’t serious he will have a great chance of leading the Pats to another undefeated regular season. They have two tough tests early in the season when Baltimore comes knocking week 4 and Tennessee travels to Foxboro week 6. How they fair in those two games will give us a better idea of how far they can go.

2. Miami Dolphins – Miami got lucky last year in a few games where they surprised teams with the wildcat. Too bad for them that everyone has had the entire off-season to plan for it now and will be able to stop it with much more regularity. Chad Pennington is still a good quarterback that, despite all of the flaws people harp on about him, knows how to win games and Ronnie Brown is an excellent running back. The Dolphins will fall back to earth a bit this year, but should still be able to finish above .500.

3. Buffalo Bills – The addition of Terrell Owens will have a drastic impact on this team. He has a history of playing well the first year he gets to a team. Not only will the Bills benefit from the yards and touchdowns he will bring to the team, Lee Evans should have a better year too, not having to face off against the opposing team’s number 1 cornerback. If Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson do their part in keeping teams honest by pounding the rock well, Trent Edwards should have time to find the open Owens or Evans and the Bills may actually jump the Dolphins to number 2 in the division.

4. NY Jets – With Brett Favre as their quarterback last year, the Jets started off 8-3 and looked like they might make a run at the Super Bowl. Those dreams died about the same time as Favre’s arm and they finished the season 1-4. This year, the Jets won’t have the benefit of Favre’s fast start. They will take a lot of lumps this year with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez failing to imitate Matt Ryan’s, or even Joe Flacco’s success from last year. The Jets will be lucky to win 6 games this year.

North

1. Pittsburgh Steelers – Until someone proves they can knock off the defending Super Bowl champs, I can’t not put them winning their own division. Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, and Santonio Holmes will never have the stats to compete with the elite fantasy players at their positions, but they know how to get the job done and they know how to work as a team. It doesn’t hurt that they play in a division with putrid Cleveland and Cincinnati either.

2. Baltimore Ravens – Baltimore’s defense is what people tend to focus on when they talk about the Ravens. While it is a very good defense (3rd in the AFC last year in points allowed) it is the offense that helped the Ravens finish so well last year (4th in points scored in the AFC last year). The Ravens’ rushing attack may be even better this year than it was last year, but I don’t see how Joe Flacco avoids a sophomore slump. Also, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed have to be running on fumes by now, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a dip in their defensive potency this year, either.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – With Carson Palmer back the Bengals should be able to double the number of wins they had last year. Unfortunately, that will only get them to 8 wins, so unless they have another tie this year they won’t have a winning record. Chad Ochocinco will have his typical good year, and will Tweet about non-stop, but there is no way Chris Henry fills the role vacated by T.J. Houshmandzadeh when he went to Seattle.

4. Cleveland Browns – This will not be the year for young quarterbacks as Brady Quinn will struggle, just like Matthew Stafford in Detroit, Mark Sanchez in New York, and Joe Flacco in Baltimore. The bad news for Quinn is that his supporting cast is just barely better than Stafford’s so the two of them will be battling for worst team in the league.

South

1. Indianapolis Colts – Peyton Manning didn’t like losing the top-dog billing in the division last year so he will do everything he can to make sure it doesn’t happen again. Marvin Harrison leaving will actually be a good thing for the Colts, because they will be able to focus on making Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez the guys to throw to. Losing Tony Dungy on the sidelines will definitely hurt the Colts, but I think Dungy had his succession plan in place and the transition should be smoother than it ought to be.

2. Tennessee Titans – Losing Albert Haynesworth to the Redskins was a big blow to the Titans defense. Teams will now be able to double up Kyle Vanden Bosch more which will make it a lot easy to run against the Titans. Not only that but Kerry Collins is going to turn 37 this year, and you have to wonder if he will be able to make it through another full season. If not, how confidant are the Titans that Vince Young will be able to take over and lead this team to some late season wins? I’d say not very.

3. Houston Texans – This could finally be the Texans’ year to finish a season with a winning record. They have a good quarterback in Matt Schaub, a Top-5 wide receiver in Andre Johnson and a Top-10 running back in Steve Slaton. This team seemed to gel last year, finishing the season 5-1, and should be able to build on that this year. Unfortunately for them they play in a division with the Colts and Titans so 9 or 10 wins is about as good as they can hope to do, which will still only get them 3rd in the division.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – I hear a lot of people saying that Maurice Jones-Drew will benefit from not having to split carries with Fred Taylor this year, but I don’t buy it. MoJo is a much better back when he can keep his legs fresh and do what he does best, which is flair out and catch passes out of the backfield. There were three games last year where he led the Jaguars in receiving, and I just don’t see him having the energy to do that again this year if he has to carry the ball 20-25 times a game. David Garrard better hope St. Louis retread Torry Holt isn’t washed up and that Troy Williamson does better here than he did in Minnesota, because he isn’t going to be able to look towards MoJo as an outlet nearly as much as he did last year.

West

1. San Diego Chargers – The Chargers offense last year scored more points than any other team in the AFC, and were second only to New Orleans in the entire NFL. All of the key components to that offense, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, Philip Rivers, and Antonio Gates are all back and unless one of them gets hurt they should have no problem scoring a lot of points again this year. With the return of Shawne Merriman on defense the Chargers won’t give up nearly as many points as they did last year, which will help them wrap up this division by Thanksgiving.

2. Oakland Raiders – The Raiders defense was good at times last year, and one of their bigger problems was they were always on the field because the Raiders’ offense was so poor. This year, with Jeff Garcia breathing down his neck, JaMarcus Russell will have no choice but to get better, and his receiving core of Darrius Heyward-Bay and Jonnie Lee Higgins should provide ample deep threats to keep teams from stacking the box against Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas. Last year’s offensive shortcomings shouldn’t hurt the Raiders nearly as much this year, and finishing the season with 7 or 8 wins shouldn’t be out of the question.

3. Denver Broncos – Replacing Jay Cutler with Kyle Orton at quarterback is a huge downgrade for this team. Add in the fact that Brandon Marshall wants out and is currently suspended, and things are shaping up to be a very long season for new Head Coach Josh McDaniels. The only chance the Broncos have of staying out of the AFC West cellar is if they can manage, for the umpteenth year in a row, to plug in a new running back and have him do well.

4. Kansas City Chiefs – Larry Johnson is washed up. The Chiefs wide receivers are a collection of has-beens and no names, except for Dwayne Bowe. But he currently doesn’t have anyone good to throw him the ball, since Matt Cassell just got hurt in a preseason game against the Seahawks. Even if Cassell was still healthy he isn’t nearly as good of a quarterback as his numbers last year with the Patriots make him out to be. If Cassell doesn’t return or has to play injured the whole year the Chiefs will be lucky to win half as many games this year as they did last year. Even if the injury turns out to be a minor one, the Chiefs won’t win more than 3 games this year.

NFC Predictions 2009

There are lots of questions going into the 2009 NFL season:  Can the Steelers repeat as Super Bowl Champs? Has Tom Brady recovered enough to lead the Patriots back to the playoffs? Can Matthew Stafford lead the Lions to even a single win? How will Brett Favre and Michael Vick do on their new teams, the Vikings and Eagles? These and many other questions will factor in to how I will predict the final season standings for all 8 divisions, as well as the playoff match-ups and winners. Below are my NFC predictions. Click here for my AFC predictions.

East

1. Philadelphia Eagles-  If Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook stay healthy (which is a big if) the Eagles should be very good this year. With the addition of a few rookies at skill positions (Jeremy Maclin at WR and LeSean McCoy at RB) and the addition of Michael Vick, opposing defenses will have a lot of players they have to scheme for, which will cause a lot of sleepless nights for opposing D Coordinators.

2. Dallas Cowboys – Playing in Jerry Jones’ new billion dollar baby should get the ‘Boys at least a win or two when opposing teams come in and just stare in awe at the ginormous TV above their heads, leaving the Cowboys free to rack up thousands of yards and hundreds of points. OK, maybe not, but with T.O. and Jessica Simpson out of the picture, it is finally time for Tony Romo to step up and show everyone he can finish a season, and I think he will. He still has his favorite target, Jason Witten, and T.O.’s absence should also help out Roy Williams , who should become the big-play threat he was drafted to be.

3. NY Giants – The Giants have a serious need at WR, now that they have officially cut ties with Plaxico Burress. Last year, the Giants were 11-1 to start off the season, but finished it 1-4, including the playoff loss to the Eagles. Guess what the difference was: Plaxico Burress wasn’t with them. Unless Eli Manning can prove he is worth his huge new contract extension and turn his OK receivers into good or great receivers, the Giants will miss the playoffs this year, although they will still finish above .500.

4. Washington Redskins- It pains me to put my boys in this spot, but I have to be realistic. The Redskins defense should be a juggernaut this year, with the addition of Albert Haynesworth, but it is put up or shut up time for Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell and I just don’t see them improving enough this year for either one to save their jobs. On the bright side of that coin, Bill Cowher is only a year a way from donning the Redskins colors and hopefully putting an end to the coaching carousel that has been going around and around and around since Dan Snyder bought the team in 1999.

North

1. Minnesota Vikings- With the addition of Brett Favre and, perhaps more importantly, Percy Harvin the Vikings passing game should be better and actually force defenses to not crowd Adrian Peterson. He may have his best year yet. And for you Favre naysayers, he only plays in two potentially cold-weather games the whole season, at Green Bay on November 1 and at Chicago December 28. That is a very favorable schedule for an old arm to last the full season.

2. Chicago Bears- The Bears only finished one game behind the Vikings last year with Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman as their QBs. Say what you want about Jay Cutler being a whiner who forced his way out of Denver, he is a better quarterback than Orton and Grossman put together. RB Matt Forte and WR Devin Hester will be even better this season than they were last season, which is a very good thing for Bears fans.

3. Green Bay Packers- I just don’t see any additions to the Packers that makes me think they will improve drastically enough to pass either of the Bears or the Vikings. All three division rivals upgraded their QB spot, and even though none of the new QBs are as good as Aaron Rodgers, all three teams did improve, where it seems Green Bay stayed pretty much the same.

4. Detroit Lions - The Lions will not finish 0-16 again this year. There are too many winnable games on the schedule for them to lay another goose egg. Unfortunately, their first win won’t come until after their bye week when they get St. Louis at home. If Matthew Stafford can’t lead the Lions over the Rams at home with two weeks to plan, then maybe they can pull out a win against Cleveland three weeks later, at Cincy two weeks after that, or at San Fran the second to last week of the season. For the sake of Lions fans everywhere, though, I hope the losing streak doesn’t reach week 16 when they play the 49ers.

South

1. Carolina Panthers- Until someone proves they can stop the RB tandem of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart you can’t pick against the Panthers. Preseason injuries to Steve Smith and Stewart have me a little worried that the Panthers won’t be able to repeat as NFC South champs, but with a bye week in week 4, health shouldn’t be a big concern for them yet.

2. New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he will find a way to win a lot of the games they lost last year. Six of their 8 losses last year came by a combined total of 18 points. With the emergence of Pierre Thomas as a reliable RB threat, the Saints will also be able to do more things better suited to Reggie Bush’s talents. Opposing defense will not like the week they look at the schedule and see New Orleans is their opponent.

3. Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan will probably be a better QB this year than last year when he took his team to the playoffs and Michael Turner will be the same dominating force in the backfield, but opposing defenses will also have more film on these two and be better prepared when they play them. I predict Ryan  and Turner will look statistically worse than they did last year and the Falcons won’t make the playoffs because defenses won’t be surprised by them nearly as much as they were last year.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Questions at quarterback will doom this team all season. When Kansas State product Josh Freeman is a viable candidate for the starting QB job as a rookie you know the team is in trouble. Freeman was a decent-enough QB for the Wildcats last year, but he is not the answer for the Bucs.

West

1. Seattle Seahawks- Matt Hasselbeck should be back to his dominant form. They have a receiving core with Nate Burleson and T.J Houshmandzadeh that is actually comprised of NFL caliber players. Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett form a formidable backfield. They have all of the offensive keys to get back to their rightful place on top of this weak division.

2. Arizona Cardinals- Even though they made it to the Super Bowl, I don’t see the Cardinals improving upon their 9-7 record from last year, especially since they won’t sweep Seattle like they did last year and probably won’t sweep San Francisco either. I may be eating these words if Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin both stay healthy the whole season, if Larry Fitzgerald plays at the same level as he did last year, and if Chris Wells compliments Tim Hightower in the backfield. That is a lot of ifs that need to take place.

3. San Francisco 49ers- Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard. That is the 49ers depth chart at QB. Enough said. If the 49ers can find a way to get Michael Crabtree into camp, and quick, and if Frank Gore stays healthy, the 49ers may be able to finish the season around .500, but it doesn’t look good.

4. St. Louis Rams- Marc Bulger leads a team that is a far cry from “The Greatest Show on Turf” and that is assuming he stays healthy enough to lead the team at all. His receiving core consists of Donnie Avery and a bunch of scrubs, which means opposing teams will load the box and stop Steven Jackson from having a real impact on their season. If not for the upsets they pulled in weeks 6 and 7 last year the Rams would have joined the Lions as a winless team, and their prospects don’t seem much better this year.

2009 MLB Predictions

Click here for my AL standings predictions.

Click here for my NL standings predictions.

Playoff Predictions

Looks like it should be a good year for the two biggest cities in America, as both of their baseball teams should make the playoffs.

NL

Cubs over Mets (Wild Card)

Phillies over Dodgers

Cubs over Phillies-Phillies have a good shot at successfully defending their title, but will fall short.

AL

Red Sox over Indians

Yankees (Wild Card) over Angels

Yankees over Red Sox-I hate both these teams with a passion, but both of their season’s will be a disappointment if they don’t make it at least this far.

World Series

Yankees over Cubs-My two least favorite teams playing each other in the World Series. Better start praying for a giant meteor now.

Cy Young

NL-Chris Carpenter-OK, a little bit of this is me being a Cardinals homer, but he does have a legitimate shot at winning this award if his arm healed the way it should have.

AL-Roy Halladay-Pitching a lot against the AL East might hurt his chances, but if he duplicates last year’s numbers (and somebody doesn’t have a fluke season like Cliff Lee did last year) he should run away with this award.

MVP

NL-Albert Pujols-He contends for this award every year, and this year shouldn’t be any different.

AL-Grady Sizemore-If he can raise his BA a bit he can not only win this award but help his team back it to the playoffs.

Rookie of the Year

NL-Colby Rasmus-Cardinals have a legit threat to win all three of the major individual awards.

AL-Matt LaPorta-The key piece to last year’s CC Sabathia trade should help Sizemore and Pronk (Travis Hafner) capture the AL Central.

2009 American League Predictions

The best season of the year is here…Baseball Season. That means it is time for my annual division standings predictions. Below are my American League predictions. Click here for my National League predictions.

East

1^st– Boston Red Sox – Two reasons they will win the division from hell. 1) They had a good off-season. No big losses and added Brad Penny as a 5^th starter. A lot of teams’ 3^rd starters aren’t as good as Penny. 2) Tampa Bay won’t be able to sneak up on anyone like they did last year, when Boston only finished 2 games back.

2^nd– NY Yankees – Their off-season acquisitions (CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, AJ Burnett) will help a lot. But not having A-Rod for the first month or so, and having a log-jam at DH will hurt. They should still be able to get the wild card though.

3^rd– Tampa Bay Rays – Will have a hard time catching lightning in a bottle two years in a row. Everyone, from the Yankees and Red Sox to the Mariners and Royals, will give their best trying to knock off the defending AL champs.

4^th – Toronto Blue Jays – Will have to accept the consolation prize of finishing over .500 for the fourth year in a row.

5^th – Baltimore Orioles – Whipping boys of the east aren’t getting better any time soon.

Central

1^st- Cleveland Indians – If Pronk (Travis Hafner) decides to show up and actually play this year, Cleveland should rise to the top of this highly contested but mediocre division.

2^nd – Minnesota Twins – Injury concerns across the board prevent them from running away from the other teams in this division.

3^rd– Chicago White Sox – When you have to sign Bartolo Colon to try to shore up your pitching rotation, you probably won’t be winning many divisions.

4^th – Kansas City Royals – I don’t see everyone’s sleeper pick doing much different this year.

5^th– Detroit Tigers – I’m pretty sure their entire pitching staff is on the DL right now. Will be battling an improved KC team for bottom of the division again.

West

1^st – LA Angels – They have their division championship celebration champagne already on ice. Unless there is a severe earthquake that drops California into the Pacific Ocean, LA will win this division for the 3^rd year in a row.

2^nd – Texas Rangers – The best of the rest in the west might actually win more than half their games this year.

3^rd– Oakland A’s – It will be a rude awakening for Matt Holiday to not being able to play half his games in Colorado. Hopefully Jason Giambi left all his needles in New York.

4^th – Seattle Mariners – The only question with this team is will they manage to not lose 100 games this year?